Cocoa & Vanilla: Two Raw Materials, One Lesson — Concentrated Sourcing Is a Major Risk
- Jun 30
- 2 min read
Cocoa and vanilla are two of the most expensive raw materials used in chocolate making, and their supply chains tell a remarkably similar story.
Cocoa - Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana together supply around 60% of global cocoa, and the 2023/24 season showed just how exposed the sector becomes when so much volume depends on so few origins. Unusually heavy rains, persistent disease pressure and other factors led to a ~30% drop in production volumes coming out of these two origins. The result: cocoa prices surged more than four-fold from pre-crisis levels, hitting record highs above $12,000/tonne.
Vanilla – A similar scenario played out with vanilla. Madagascar produces around 80% of the world's natural vanilla. In March 2017, Cyclone Enawo tore through the island's main growing region, destroying an estimated 30% of the crop. Prices rocketed from around $100/kg to over $600/kg almost overnight.
Same root cause, two different commodities: when 60-80% of global supply sits in one or two countries, a single weather event can upend the entire market.
The encouraging part? Both commodities are now seeing real movement toward sourcing diversification.
In cocoa, Ecuador has been quietly building scale for years and is now on track to overtake Ghana as the world's second-largest producer. Peru has nearly doubled its production over the past decade, while Brazil and Nigeria are both investing heavily to rebuild output that declined from earlier peaks — all part of a broader shift of volume away from West Africa's two dominant origins.
In vanilla, Uganda has gone from exporting just 30 tonnes in 2019 to over 600 tonnes in 2024, becoming the world's second-largest vanilla producer after Madagascar. Uganda has a strategic advantage as well: its equatorial climate gives it two vanilla harvests a year, versus only one in Madagascar.
The lesson for sourcing teams everywhere: sourcing concentration risk is invisible right up until it isn't. Weather, politics, disease — any one of them can flip the switch overnight, and by that point, diversifying is no longer an option. Secondary origins need to be built before they're needed, not after. That's the difference between weathering a crisis and being defined by it.
If you need guidance on cocoa sourcing diversification or a deeper look at origin risk, connect with us. We’re happy to share insights and explore how we can work together.
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