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Is Indonesia really the world’s #3 cocoa producer? It depends what data you use… and who you ask.

  • Jun 22
  • 2 min read

I’m always surprised when I come across posts and on-line communications stating that Indonesia is the world’s third‑largest cocoa producer. If you’ve ever wondered where such claims come from, you’re not alone. The answer depends entirely on which dataset you choose to trust.


Look across the major cocoa production datasets and something immediately stands out: Indonesia ranks third in some sources (FAO), yet drops several places in others (ICCO). The discrepancy isn’t random — it’s driven by fundamentally different methodologies.


FAO figures rely heavily on government‑reported production data. They aim to capture the total volume of cocoa harvested within national borders, including beans that never enter formal supply chains. In many cases, production is estimated by multiplying the hectares a government believes are under cocoa cultivation by an assumed yield per hectare. If either the area or the yield is overstated, the resulting production figure will be inflated. Data quality depends largely on national reporting accuracy.


ICCO, by contrast, focuses on marketable cocoa — the volumes that actually enter the global supply chain. Their estimates draw on exporters, processors, traders, and national cocoa boards, and they adjust for cross‑border flows, smuggling, and discrepancies between production and grindings. This makes ICCO’s dataset more reflective of commercial reality, though it may undercount production in countries with large informal or domestic markets.


Key takeaway:

  • FAO shows how much cocoa is grown.

  • ICCO shows how much cocoa reaches the market.


So what about Indonesia? ICCO ranks it 7th at ~180 kMT, while FAO places it 3rd at ~630 kMT – with the actual figure almost certainly somewhere between the two (perhaps in the region of ~250 kMT). This gap underscores just how much methodology can shape the narrative, and why ICCO’s market‑aligned estimates are generally a more dependable foundation for procurement strategy.


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Data sources: ICCO Bulletin No 2, 2025; FAO: https://www.fao.org/faostat/

 
 
 

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